The case for Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish - the best pitcher in the world not playing in Major League Baseball.

I’ve watched the YouTube videos  (the pitch 30 seconds in, WOW) on Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish a dozen times and every time I see him screw batters into the ground with each breaking ball he ropes and each fastball he puts wherever he pleases around the plate, I get goosebumps.

Dice who?

Darvish, the six-foot-five Iranian-Japanese flamethrower and two-time Japanese MVP, has been the Roy Halladay of Japanese baseball for the last half-decade. See stats:

Nippon Professional Baseball
Year	Age	Team	W	L	W%	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	league ERA
2005	18	Nippon-Ham	5	5	.500	14	2	1	94.1	97	37	37	7	48	52	3.53	1.54	4.06
2006	19		12	5	.706	24	3	2	149.2	128	55	48	12	64	115	2.89	1.28	3.62
2007	20		15	5	.750	26	12	3	207.2	123	48	42	9	49	210	1.82	0.83	3.57
2008	21		16	4	.800	24	10	2	200.2	136	44	42	11	44	208	1.88	0.90	3.90
2009	22		15	5	.750	23	8	2	182	118	36	35	9	45	167	1.73	0.90	4.03
2010	23		12	8	.600	25	10	2	202	158	48	40	5	47	222	1.78	1.01	3.94
2011	24		18	6	.750	28	10	6	232	156	42	37	5	36	276	1.44	0.83	2.95
Career			93	38	.710	164	55	18	1268.1	916	310	281	58	333	1259	1.99	0.98

This kid has been in a class of his own with the Nippon Ham Fighters, posting outrageous stats, topping the league in strikeouts, complete games, winning percentage, shutouts, innings, ERA, WHIP and walks. He started his career strong and has done nothing but get better, posting a lower ERA each year for the past four seasons and had a career-high 276 strikeouts and 232 innings in 2011.

The greatest state might be this: 1268.1 innings pitched in seven seasons and only 333 walks. I’m no mathematician, but off the top of my head that’s, well, just out of this world. It’s never an easy at bat with this kid. Naysayers believe his stats are inflated, that he wouldn’t be able to post these kinds of numbers in North America. Yes, that may be a fair assumption to make, but when a player like Stephen Strasburg signs for 4-year $15 million contract having never pitched in the bigs and a guy like Darvish has pitched at the professional level for years, it’s worth the shot.

I’m saying this because the Toronto Blue Jays are said to be the front runner in an auction to negotiate a contract with Darvish. Teams placed bids on negotiating rights to Darvish Wednesday (it’s said now the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers and Jays all bid and possibly a mystery team or two) and right now the Jays are said to have one. Completely unconfirmed at this point, however, Jays GM Alex Anthropolous (AA) made a personal trip to Japan to scout Darvish this year and the team’s lead scout was over twice to bring back as much on the kid as they could.

AA is one of the slickest GMs in the league. He runs a tight ship and has made some key moves over the last two years that have proved to be big for a team trying to breakaway from .500. Unloading Alex Rios and Vernon Wells’ astronomical contract (he makes about $500,000 a year less than Albert Pujols), trading for Brett Lawrie, signing Jose Bautista after his monster 50 HR season and this off season, bringing in Sergio Santos as the clubs’ closer – AA has made quality moves without breaking the bank. He’s put together a squad of young talent mixed with top end players on team-friendly contracts (note: Joey Bats is making just above $14 million this year – a steal of a deal). The farm system has gone from near-worst to near-first with a crop of young pitchers and hitters (Henderson Alvarez and Anthony Gose are two of the biggest) and all of a sudden the Jays are in the middle of the rumour mill that they are looking to spend.

And this is the year they should. I mean, don’t blow the bank, but make a splash and show the league you are serious. Darvish could be the splash that vaults the Jays into playoff contention. The Jays were on the cusp last season. 81-81 when all was said and done, but throw in another 12 wins, about half the blown saves the patchwork closing team of Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, and you’re all of a sudden 90 or more in the win column. And with the addition of a second wild card team in the playoffs, the Jays chances of making it into the post season for the first time since the back-t0-back World Series titles in 1992 an 1993, just got better.

The fans, like myself, have been debating endlessly if Darvish is a good move. It’s risky, yes, who knows what he will turn out to be, but it’s a move worth taking a chance on. Darvish will bring a lucrative Japanese television contract to the Jays, netting them, likely, more than $50 million on that alone. Think ticket sales and merchandise and Darvish is more than just a phenom, he’s a big time money maker. Watching Darvish, it’s unlikely he will be a bust like Dice K. Comparing their stats, Dice K got worse as he aged while Darvish is continually getting better – and he’s 25 remember? A solid number two or three starter, Darvish could easily win 12 games but if he pitches like he has in Japan against MLB hitters, he could win 18 to 20 no problem.

So Darvish over Fielder? Arguments for Fielder are he is a bat to protect Bautista. Well, Bautista still had a monster season with mediocrity behind him much of the season. He doesn’t need protection at this point – and, well, if Lawrie puts up numbers all season like he did for a month, there is the protection. Lawrie, in a full season on last years month of play would have hit over .300 with 40 dingers and more than 110 RBI. And he’s only 21. Wait out Joey Votto’s contract, or even snag him in a trade with the Reds because he isn’t keen on signing there and it’s better for Cincy to get something in return – prospects from one of the best farm systems in the league – and suddenly, this patience game AA plays will pay off.

Bring on Darvish. A gamble? Maybe. A sure winner in Toronto? Who knows? High risk? You bet. But a move worth taking the chance on.